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| The Russian economy has been dealing with growing headwinds this year: unruly inflation, a ballooning budget deficit – due in part to massive military spending – and shrinking revenues from oil and natural gas. | Russia’s central demands are for Ukraine to abandon its ambition to join NATO – which was a distant prospect before Moscow launched its all-out invasion of the country in February 2022 – and for Kyiv’s military to withdraw fully from Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a vast area known as the Donbas. It was here that the Kremlin started destabilizing Ukraine in 2014, helping pro-Russian separatists gain control of most of the area. The Donbas was eventually illegally annexed by Russia in September 2022. |
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| Economic growth has also slowed sharply. But the gathering economic storm is unlikely to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table anytime soon to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts say the Kremlin could weather it for many more years at the current pace of fighting and with existing Western sanctions in place. | Zelensky has offered concessions on both issues. During a wide-ranging press conference Tuesday to discuss the new 20-point peace plan, Zelensky said Ukraine was seeking security guarantees from its allies that would “mirror” NATO’s Article 5 – which requires all members to defend any member that has come under attack – but would no longer pursue full membership of the military alliance. |
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| | Zelensky also said Ukraine would be willing to withdraw its troops from parts of the Donetsk region not currently occupied by Russian forces. The Ukrainian leader said any withdrawal of troops would have to be reciprocal, with Moscow giving up as much Ukrainian territory as that ceded by Kyiv and those pockets of the Donbas becoming demilitarized as a result. Earlier this month, Zelensky noted that US negotiators wanted these territories to become “free economic zones” once all troops were withdrawn. |
| “If you look at the economy itself, it’s not going to be that ultimate straw that breaks the camel’s back,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank. “It’s not catastrophic. It’s manageable.” | [[https://trips62.cc/|tripskan]] |
| [[https://tripscan60c.cc/|трипскан сайт]] | Ukraine’s constitution requires any changes to the country’s borders to be approved in a referendum. Zelensky reiterated Friday that “the fate of Ukraine should be decided by the people of Ukraine” and said Ukraine’s allies “have enough power to force Russia or to negotiate with the Russians” to ensure that any such plebiscite could be carried out safely. |
| Looking at the next three to five years, Russia could carry on fighting, she said, noting that it’s hard to make a reliable assessment beyond that. | |
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| And a contingent of exiled, anti-Putin Russian economists believes the war of attrition could continue even longer because the Kremlin’s ability to wage the war is “unimpeded by any economic constraints.” | |
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| Western sanctions have not inflicted enough pain on Russia’s energy-focused economy to change Moscow’s plans for the war, Richard Connolly at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told CNN. | |
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| “As long as Russia’s pumping oil and they’re selling it at a fairly reasonable price, they have enough money to just muddle along,” said the senior fellow in international security at the UK-based think tank. | |
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| “I’m not saying it’s a really rosy picture for them, but they’ve got enough for the economy not to be a factor in Putin’s calculus when he’s thinking about the war,” Connolly added. | |
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